At the end of the hottest CPI, monetary policy wil

2022-08-23
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The monetary policy will remain moderately loose at the end of the CPI crossbow

the monetary policy will remain moderately loose at the end of the CPI crossbow

China Construction machinery information

Guide: since this year, the tone of monetary policy has not changed, and moderate easing is still a loose monetary policy, but the policy is more targeted and flexible. If the monetary policy is relaxed in the second half of 2010, by 2011, when inflation expectations are more intense, the monetary policy will have to change to the direction of tightening, frequency

since this year, the tone of monetary policy has not changed. Moderate easing is still a loose monetary policy, but the policy is more targeted and flexible. If the monetary policy is relaxed in the second half of 2010, by 2011, when inflation expectations are more intense, the monetary policy will have to change to the direction of tightening, and frequent changes may disrupt the market order. "

in an interview with the media on September 8, experts from the prediction science research center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that the monetary policy would transition from moderate to loose in the next step, and also proposed that the central bank might reduce the reserve ratio and relax the credit policy in the second half of the year

this is not the first time that experts have proposed that monetary policy should be relaxed again. Previously, Ji min, director of the macroeconomic Department of the Research Bureau of the central bank, and Wang Yue, director of the Jinan Branch of the central bank, wrote an article in the magazine "China's money market" (August issue) in charge of the central bank. As the economic situation changes, monetary policy will continue to relax liquidity in the inter-bank market, and loans may continue to be issued to some local financing platforms in the second half of the year

however, the call to return to easing has not been widely recognized, and more experts believe that monetary policy will remain moderately loose in the second half of the year

inflation expectations are weakening and not tightening

as the main reference data of monetary policy, many institutions predict that CPI data in August is expected to refresh discipline and set a new high this year. The financial research center of the Bank of communications predicts that the CPI in August will increase by about 3.5% year-on-year

however, Hao Daming, Macro Analyst of Minsheng securities, said in an interview with the international finance news: "prices may hit a new high in August, but the increase may not exceed that in July." Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at industrial bank, believes that "CPI in August is at the end of its strength", "consumption and investment continue to weaken, corresponding to this, M2 growth rate has also fallen rapidly below the target level of 17%, and inflation expectations have weakened significantly."

no matter when the CPI data peaked, institutions generally expected that the CPI trend would show a trend of rising and falling in the second half of the year. Yang Xiaoguang, deputy director of the prediction science research center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the media that there would be no general inflation this year. Due to the sharp decline of tail raising factors, CPI is expected to peak in the third quarter, with annual CPI of about 2.7%, of which food and non food categories rose by about 5.3% and 1.4% respectively. Yang Xiaoguang pointed out that the rise in CPI was mainly due to food prices and had little to do with the loose monetary policy in 2009. There is no need to curb CPI through monetary policy. Moreover, due to the current decline in domestic economic growth, the world economy has not yet got rid of the shadow of the financial crisis, the pressure of price inflation is not large, and the liquidity of commercial banks is tight, the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates and raising the reserve ratio in the near future is very small. Lu political commissar also pointed out: "at present, there is no dilemma of monetary policy. At least from the perspective of inflation, there is no need to use tightening policies to curb inflation." Haodaming also said to: "since we calculate that the inflationary pressure is not large, we judge that the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future is very small."

the economic downturn is slowing down and not loose

Yang Xiaoguang also predicted that the central bank has been implementing a moderately loose monetary policy since the end of 2008. The moderately loose monetary policy in 2009 tends to be loose, and the moderately loose monetary policy in early 2010 tends to be moderate. It is expected that the monetary policy will transition from moderate to loose in the next step, "the central bank may also reduce the reserve ratio and relax the credit policy in the second half of the year"

however, many experts do not agree with this view. "Unlikely." Hao Daming made it clear to him, "on the one hand, there are constraints on the overall credit target of 7.5 trillion yuan, and the central bank cannot abandon this indicator. From the perspective of credit balance, the next credit environment is relatively tight.

" at present, the policy is not loose, and there is no sign of easing according to the shape, material and loading size of the indenter. " Commissar Lu also held a similar view, "At present, credit is constrained by four ropes: the first is the overall credit target of 7.5 trillion yuan; the second is the capital adequacy ratio. Although the bank's capital adequacy ratio is good this year, banks should make preparations for business in the next few years and leave room; the third is the bank's deposit loan ratio index, which is constrained by the bottom line of 75% deposit loan ratio, and banks cannot relax credit; finally, the current market rumors that the CBRC is discussing the provision for impairment of commercial banks before the end of the year Provision is made for the proportion of 2.5% of the total loan. In addition, with the second round of clean-up of local financing platforms, banks are currently taking a wait-and-see attitude towards this kind of credit. In addition, further expanding the prohibited area of the third set of housing loans will affect the supply and demand of the credit market. Based on the above factors, it will be difficult to relax credit. "

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, analyzed this newspaper: "Whether the deposit reserve ratio is reduced or not still needs to be judged carefully. From the perspective of central 1, the ability of metal materials to resist the collapse of hard objects, the maturity of central bills is relatively small in the last two months of 2010, which may affect the market liquidity situation. However, in the second half of the year, our experimental mechanism for trade surplus is too long-term communication with customers, and our research and development experience may expand, the share of foreign exchange may rise, or it may make up for the maturity of central bills, so it is not necessary We should reduce the deposit reserve ratio, inject funds into the market and improve liquidity. In addition, changes in the exchange rate will also affect monetary policy. Once the RMB/US dollar exchange rate rebounds after falling, it may cause capital inflows and change the liquidity pattern. "

Lian Ping also pointed out: "Since this year, the tone of monetary policy has not changed. Moderate easing is still a loose monetary policy, but the policy is more targeted and flexible. If monetary policy is relaxed in the second half of 2010, in 2011, when inflation expectations are more intense, monetary policy will change to the direction of tightening, and frequent changes may disrupt the market order. Therefore, policymakers will adjust monetary policy very carefully."

in addition, Political Commissar Lu believes that although the current regulators have no intention to relax monetary policy, it is possible in the first half of next year. He predicts that the bottom of this round of small cycle adjustment of economic indicators, especially PMI built copper products, copper based new material inspection and testing equipment, and talent information base indicators, may appear in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, in the early or second quarter of next year, the policy may be moderately relaxed

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